Market Report - Bringing the Lightwave Home

Table of Contents

BRINGING THE LIGHTWAVE HOME

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF FIGURES

SUMMARY OF CONCEPTS

INTRODUCTION

THE HOME OF THE FUTURE

MARKET DRIVERS

THIRST FOR BROADBAND ACCESS
THE INTERNET
- xDSL Forecasts
- Cable Modem Forecasts
- Radio-Based High-Speed Line Forecasts
- Fixed Wireless
- Satellite-Based Service
- Total High-Speed Residential Line Forecast
OTHER DRIVERS
- Multiple Computer Homes
- New Home Construction
- Home Network Justification – A Cost-Based Driver

SEGMENTATION OF THE NETWORK

LONG-HAUL DWDM
METRO DWDM (METRO CORE)
ACCESS NETWORK EQUIPMENT (METRO ACCESS)
WAVELENGTH ROUTERS & OPTICAL SWITCHES
TERABIT ROUTERS & GIGABIT SWITCHES
AGGREGATION DEVICES
ENTERPRISE ACCESS SYSTEMS
VIDEO ACCESS EQUIPMENT
RESIDENTIAL ACCESS SYSTEMS

RESIDENTIAL ACCESS NETWORKS

HOW DOES RESIDENTIAL ACCESS FIT WITH THE OVERALL OPTICAL NETWORK?
CHARACTERIZING RESIDENTIAL ACCESS
WHAT ARE THE COMPETING TECHNOLOGIES FOR RESIDENTIAL ACCESS?
- TDM
- CATV
- PON
- Radio-Based
THE TDM DESIGN
- History of the TDM Design
- The ‘Pure Copper’ Environment
- The Electronic Serving Area
- Adding Fiber To Electronic Serving Area Design
- Fiber to the "X"
- FTTH
- The NGDLC (Next Generation Digital Loop Carrier)
- TR-303 vs. TR-008
- Traffic Implications of the Internet on the DLC Design
- Traffic Model – The Strain of Broadband
- Operations Implications of DLC Design
- Economic Drivers for DLC Access Design
- Cost Model for FITL
- Characterization of Today’s Wireline/Fiber Residential Access
THE CATV DESIGN
- Classical CATV
- CATV Basic Design
- Two-Way Systems
- The Fiber Trunked CATV System
- Fiber to the Node
- Modern HFC and Cable Modems
- Characterization of Current CATV Networks
THE PON DESIGN
- Status of PON
- Advantage and Disadvantages of PON
BROADBAND RESIDENTIAL ACCESS APPLICATIONS
- Cable Modems
- xDSL Lines
DLC DESIGN AND BROADBAND RESIDENTIAL ACCESS – TRAFFIC IMPLICATIONS
RADIO-BASED ALTERNATIVES FOR RESIDENTIAL ACCESS
- MMDS
- LMDS
- Satellite
REVIEW OF VENDORS OF RESIDENTIAL ACCESS EQUIPMENT
- Summary of Wireline Vendors
- Wireline Equipment Supplier Profiles
- Accelerated Networks
- Advanced Fibre Communications
- Alcatel
- ANDA Networks
- Broadband Technologies (Pliant Systems)
- Catena Networks
- Efficient Networks
- Ensemble Communications
- Ericsson
- Hybrid Networks
- Lucent
- Marconi (Reltec)
- Nortel
- Optical Solutions
- PairGain (ADC)
- Quantum Bridge
- Siemens
CATV RESIDENTIAL ACCESS EQUIPMENT VENDORS
- Summary of CATV Access Vendors
- CATV Equipment Supplier Profiles
- ADC Telecommunications
- Antec
- Artel
- General Instruments
- Harmonic Lightwave
- Lucent
- Philips
- Scientific Atlanta
- Synchronous Communications Inc.
RADIO-BASED RESIDENTIAL ACCESS EQUIPMENT VENDORS
- Summary of Radio-Based Access Vendors
- Vendor Profiles
- Adaptive Broadband Corp.
- ADC Telecomm.
- Alcatel
- Cisco
- Ensemble Communications
- Hughes Network Systems
- Hybrid Networks
- Nortel
- Netro Corp.
- Telaxis Communications Corp.
- Triton Network Systems
- Vyyo, Inc.

THE RESIDENTIAL GATEWAY

WHAT IS THE RG?
HOW DID THE RG IDEA ORIGINATE?
WHERE DOES THE RG STAND TODAY?
DIFFERENT PHILOSOPHIES OF THE RG
- The Telco
- The Telecommunications Equipment Manufacturer
- The Computer Manufacturer
- The Facility Services Companies (IXCs, CATV companies, ISPs, CELCs, etc.)
- The Home Entertainment Equipment Manufacturers
- Developers (Home Builders)
- The End User – ‘Customercentric’
BUSINESS CASE FOR THE RG
- RG Business Case – What are the Issues?
- Business Case – Value
- Business Case – Costs
- Business Case – Who Will Benefit?
- RG Business Case – RG Services – What Are They?
- Entertainment Based
- Internet/Data Based
- Telephony Based
- Home Protection/Automation
- Applications Enhanced by Combinations of New Services
- RG Support of Features – By Type
- Business Case – Conclusion
WHAT ARE THE CARRIERS DOING?
- Pacific Bell (SBC)
- Verizon
- Bell South
RG TECHNOLOGY
- General
- External Network Connection
- Internal Bus Objectives
- Options
- Memory and Processor
- Operating System
- Device Management
- What Is Needed to Achieve Device Management?
- What is Available?
- What Are the Design Trade-offs For Location Options?
TECHNOLOGY ISSUES
- "Whole House" RG
- The "Internet RG"
- xDSL vs. Cable Modems
- Set-Top RGs
REVIEW OF RG VENDORS
Summary of Whole House RG Vendors
Summary of Internet RG Vendors
Summary of Set Top RG vendors
Vendors’ Profiles
- 3Com
- Arescom
- Atronics International (ATI)
- Broadband Gateways
- Cayman Systems
- Cisco
- Coactive Networks
- Comverge Technologies Inc.
- Com21 Inc.
- Convacent
- D-Link
- Ericsson
- Efficient Networks (FlowPoint Corp.)
- Full House Control
- Global Converging Technology
- Harmonic Data Inc.
- Home Director Inc.
- Home Wireless Networks
- Honeywell
- IBM
- Ishoni
- JDS Technologies
- Light Media Interactive
- Lucent
- MaxGate Technologies
- Motorola
- NDC Communications
- NetGear
- Next Level Communications, Inc.
- Nokia
- Novell
- Pace Micro Technology
- Panja
- Sage Systems
- Sarnoff Labs
- Scientific Atlanta
- ShareGate
- SonicWALL
- SmartAmerica
- Stellar One Corp.
- ST Microelectronics
- Tut Systems
- Ucentric Systems
- UStec
- ViaGate Technologies
- Westell Technologies

HOME NETWORKS – THE GLUE THAT TIES IT ALL TOGETHER

INTRODUCTION

HOME NETWORK RATIONALE

TYPES OF HOME NETWORKS

CABLE-BASED
Ways of Using Cable Networks
- The Thin Coax Network
- The Category 5 Network
- Migrating from a Legacy Network to a Category 5 Network
- Connecting to an External Network
"PIGGYBACK" NETWORKS
Telephony Wiring
Power Wiring
- X 10
- CEbus
- LonWorks
- High-Speed Powerline Networks
- Radio-Based
Comparisons of Home Network Types

REVIEW OF HOME NETWORK VENDORS

SUMMARY OF CABLE-BASED SYSTEMS
SUMMARY OF PHONELINE SYSTEMS
SUMMARY OF POWERLINE SYSTEMS
SUMMARY OF RF SYSTEMS
VENDOR’S PROFILES
- 2Wire
- Actiontec Electronics
- Adaptive Networks
- Ademco
- Atheros Communications
- Avaya
- Broadcom Corp.
- Buffalo Technologies
- CEBus Industry Council
- Centillium Communications Inc.
- ClearWorks
- Diamond Multimedia
- D-Link Systems
- Domosys
- Echelon Corp.
- HighSpeed Surfing
- Home Phoneline Networking Association
- HomePlug Powerline Alliance
- HomeRF Working Group
- Inari
- Intellon Corp.
- Linksys
- LonMark Interoperability Association
- Lucent
- MediaFlow
- Multiplex Technologies Inc.
- NDC Communications
- OnQ Technologies Inc.
- Proxim
- Radiata
- Smarthome.com
- X-10 USA Inc.

PRICE FORECASTS

RESIDENTIAL ACCESS PRICE FORECASTS
- Wire Line
- CATV
- Radio-Based Options
- MMDS
- LMDS
- Satellite
RESIDENTIAL GATEWAYS
- Whole House RG
- Internet RG
- Set Top RG
HOME NETWORKS
- Cable-Based
- Phoneline, Powerline, RF

MARKET FORECASTS

RESIDENTIAL ACCESS NETWORKS
- Telephony – xDSL-Based Networks
- CATV - Cable Modem-Based Networks
- Radio-Based High Speed Access Forecasts – Fixed and Satellite
- Total Access Network Market Forecasts
RESIDENTIAL GATEWAYS
- Whole House RGs
- Internet RGs
- Set-Top RGs
- Total RG Market
HOME NETWORKS
- Cable-Based
- Phoneline
- Powerline
- RF or Wireless
Total Non-Cable Home Networks
- Total Home Network Market
Market Forecast Summary
- Access Networks
- Residential Gateways
- Home Networks
- Forecasts Summary – All Sectors

SUCCESS STRATEGIES

CARRIERS
VENDORS

STANDARDS ACTIVITIES

ADSL Forum
Cable Labs
CEBus Industry Council
Digital Audio Visual Council
Electronic Industries Alliance
Home Phoneline Networking Association
HomePlug Powerline Alliance
HomeRF Working Group
IEEE-1394
IEEE- 802.3
LonMark Interoperability Association
OSGi Open Services Gateway Initiative
T1
Universal ADSL Working Group
Video Electronics Standards Association

APPENDIX I – MATRIX OF PROVIDERS

APPENDIX II – LISTING OF ACRONYMS

Table of Figures

Figure 1, Report Major Sections
Figure 2, SBC xDSL Gain in 2000
Figure 3, xDSL In-Service End of 2000, Selected Companies
Figure 4, xDSL Forecast – US
Figure 5, Cable Modem Forecast
Figure 6, Fixed Wireless Forecast – US Subscribers
Figure 7, Satellite High-Speed Access - US Subscribers
Figure 8, xDSL and Cable Modem High-Speed Lines - US Forecast
Figure 9, Comparison of xDSL and Cable Modem Forecasts
Figure 10, Total High-Speed Access Lines – By Type
Figure 11, Total High-Speed Access Lines
Figure 12, High-Speed Accesses vs. Household Growth
Figure 13, Households with Computers and Multiple PCs - US Forecast
Figure 14, New Home Construction - US
Figure 15, Cost Savings Available from Home Network Plus RG
Figure 16, "Riding the Lightwave" Rationale
Figure 17, The Residential World
Figure 18, Copper Tree and Branch Design
Figure 19, Resistance of Various Gauge Cables
Figure 20, Original CSA Design
Figure 21, CSA with Fiber Feeder
Figure 22, Fiber to the 'X' Varieties
Figure 23, Original CSA Design
Figure 24, CSA Design with Fiber Feeder
Figure 25, Fiber to the Node
Figure 26, Fiber to the Curb
Figure 27, NGDLC Acronyms
Figure 28, Growth of Remote Terminal Trunking Required for Internet Traffic
Figure 29, xDSL Traffic Impact on Local Access
Figure 30, OAM&P Requirements - DLC/FTTx Design
Figure 31, DLC Architecture Comparison
Figure 32, Serving Area Calculations - Cost Model
Figure 33, Today's Residential Access Network
Figure 34, Basic CATV Network
Figure 35, Two Way Cable TV Network
Figure 36, Fiber Trunked CATV System
Figure 37, HFC CATV System
Figure 38, HFC CATV with Cable Modems
Figure 39, State-of-the-Art CATV System
Figure 40, PON Basic Arrangement
Figure 41, Cable Modem - Head End Equipment
Figure 42, ADSL on Wire Facility
Figure 43, ADSL from Enhanced DLC
Figure 44, C.O. Equipment for ADSL
Figure 45, 'Up-Network' Impact of Residential Demand
Figure 46, Frequency Vs. Distance for LMDS
Figure 47, Vendor Summary Wireline Residential Access Systems
Figure 48, UMC 1000 Application Layout
Figure 49, Litespan/OneStream Layout
Figure 50, Application of Universal Access Platform
Figure 51, Vendor Summary Video Access Equipment
Figure 52, General Instruments Equipment Layout
Figure 53, Summary of Radio-Based Access Vendors
Figure 54, The Residential World
Figure 55, Traffic Cop RG - The Whole House Concept
Figure 56, RG Applications
Figure 57, Contributors To The Residential Gateway Document
Figure 58, RG Types Defined
Figure 59, Business Case Equation
Figure 60, Customers’ RG Benefits
Figure 61, Network Providers’ RG Benefits
Figure 62, Hardware Providers
Figure 63, Table of Features RG Types Cross-reference
Figure 64, RG - Major Systems
Figure 65, Video Use Channel Requirements
Figure 66, Device Management Layout
Figure 67, Typical Whole House Design
Figure 68, Internet RG Typical Layout
Figure 69, Types of xDSL
Figure 70, Comparison of Various Internet Access Methods
Figure 71, Typical Set-Top RGs
Figure 72, Vendor Summary RG "Whole House" RGs – Summary
Figure 73, Vendor Summary Internet RG
Figure 74, Vendor Summary Set Top RG
Figure 75, Application of D-Link 704 Home Gateway
Figure 76, Next Level RG Application
Figure 77, Pace RG Vision
Figure 78, Panja Home Gateway Connection to Entertainment System
Figure 79, The Residential World
Figure 80, Rationale for Home Networks
Figure 81, IEEE Cabling Standards
Figure 82, Thin Coax Network
Figure 83, Category 5 Cable Network
Figure 84, Migration from Thin Coax to Category 5 Network
Figure 85, Interconnection of External Network
Figure 86, Cable Based Home Network
Figure 87, Components of a Structured Wiring System
Figure 88, Power Line Transmission Problems
Figure 89, Radio-Based Home Networks
Figure 90, RF (Wireless) LAN
Figure 91, Comparison of Various Home Networking Technologies
Figure 92, Vendor Summary of Cable-Based Systems
Figure 93, Vendor Summary of Phoneline Systems
Figure 94, Vendor Summary of Powerline Systems
Figure 95, Vendor Summary of RF Systems
Figure 96, Cost of Adding an xDSL Line
Figure 97, Cable Modem Costs
Figure 98, Whole House RG Cost Forecasts
Figure 99, Internet RG Forecast Costs
Figure 100, Set Top RG Costs
Figure 101, Cable-Based Home Networks - Price Forecast
Figure 102, Price Forecast - Non-Cable Home Networks
Figure 103, Market Forecast - Wire Line xDSL Networks
Figure 104, Market Forecast - Cable Modem-Based Networks
Figure 105, RF-Based Market Projections - High Speed Access
Figure 106, Total Residential Access Market (000’s)
Figure 107, Cumulative Residential Broadband Access Market
Figure 108, Unit Forecasts – Broadband Access Networks
Figure 109, Whole House RG - Acceptance Percentage
Figure 110, Market Forecast - Whole House RG
Figure 111, Acceptance Percentage - Internet RGs
Figure 112, Market Forecast - Internet RGs
Figure 113, Acceptance Percentage - Set Top RGs
Figure 114, Market Forecast – Set-Top RGs
Figure 115, Market Forecast - Total RG Market
Figure 116, Unit Forecasts for Residential Gateways
Figure 117, Cumulative Residential Gateway Market Forecast
Figure 118, Acceptance Percentages - New Homes Wired
Figure 119, Market Forecast – Cable-Based Home Networks
Figure 120, Acceptance Percentage - Non-Cable-Based Home Networks
Figure 121, Non- Cabled Home Networks – All Types
Figure 122, Market Percentage - Phoneline Networks
Figure 123, Market Percentage - Powerline Networks
Figure 124, RF Network Penetration
Figure 125, Market Forecast – Non-Cable Home Network Segments
Figure 126, Summary of Non-Cable Home Network Market Forecasts
Figure 127, Market Forecast - Total Home Network Market
Figure 128, Unit Forecast for Home Networks
Figure 129, Cumulative Home Network Market
Figure 130, Access Network Forecasts – Summary (000,000’s)
Figure 131, Residential Gateway Forecasts – Summary
Figure 132, Home Networks - Summary
Figure 133, Forecast Summary - All Sectors
Figure 134, Graph of Total Forecasts