|
|
 |
|
The Lightwave Post 9-11
An Analysis of the impact of the telecommunications dowtrun, and the effects of Sept. 11th.
Introduction
The attacks on the USA of September 11, 2001 are certainly one of, if not the most, traumatic events to ever occur in the history of the United States. There is no doubt that these attacks caused a significant paralysis of the US (and World) economy. For several days, people didn’t go anyplace; they just watched the news. Buying stopped at the malls; pleasure travel just dried up; business travel nearly halted; borrowing stopped; people stopped sending jokes and other frivolous material on the Internet; the stock markets dived; airlines, restaurants, hotels, theme parks, rental car agencies, etc. lost a great deal of business. On a slightly longer term basis, things that would not have been expected, like the loss of sales tax revenue to the states that have significant tourism Texas is estimating a loss of $50 to $100 million, are beginning to come to light, adding a strain on many budgets that is likely to cause a multiplier effect of the initial shocks.
Of course, our economy was already in a slowdown (maybe a recession – certainly it was a recession from the point of view of the telecommunications markets) before the attacks. The impact of the previous slowdown was the subject of the original "Riding the Lightwave Down and Back Up." This report is an update to the forecasts included in "Lightwave Down" (A shorthand name that will be used for the previous report.) This report will provide a new set of forecasts that includes the impacts of the 9-11 attacks and includes consideration of the latest available data (third quarter 2001) for xDSL and cable modem sales.
The material in "Lightwave Down" will be included so as to allow the reader to make comparisons as best suits individual needs, and to allow this update to be a completely standalone document.
"Lightwave Down" was itself a revision to a set of forecast provided in the report "Riding the Lightwave" (June 2000.) Thus we have three sets of forecasts in this report. To help clarify the three sets of forecasts that will be in this report the following is offered as to nomenclature that will be used throughout.
- June 2000 Forecasts – "Riding the Lightwave" Forecasts – or previous forecasts.
This set of forecasts was based on the best intelligence at the time, however it was more conservative than many analysts. It viewed the Internet as beginning to be driven by the growth of high-speed accesses, and their higher data transfer rates. It never ascribed to the then popular view that the Internet was growing at 400%, but rather used 100 – 200%, that proved to be much more accurate. It also introduced the idea of the end user as being the main driver of the growth of the optical network market.
- August 2001 Forecasts – "Riding the Lightwave Down and Back Up" Forecasts – or "Lightwave Down" Forecasts or revised forecasts. This set of forecasts followed the philosophy that the Internet was the main driver of overall network traffic, and that the Internet’s growth was being driven predominately by conversion to high-speed accesses. The forecasts included were based on the experience of the late 200, early 2001 downturn. This set of forecasts included supply/demand analysis to project when an upturn would occur in the optical network markets.
- November 2001 Forecasts – "The Lightwave Post 9-11" Forecasts – or 9-11 Forecasts or new forecasts. This set of forecasts includes the impacts of the Attack on America of September 11, 2001. The report continues the same basic philosophy as the previous ones. It also includes a revised projection of the upturn.
It is hoped that this listing will guide the reader to an understanding of the three sets of data presented herein.
Table of Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF FIGURES
THE LIGHTWAVE NETWORK SERIES OF REPORTS
SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION
Introduction from "Lightwave Down"
ADVERSE FACTORS IN THE CURRENT MARKET
Over-Supply
New Factors since 9-11
FORECASTS FOR INTERNET DRIVERS
- Thirst for Broadband Access
- High Speed Access Forecast
- xDSL Forecasts
- New xDSL Forecasts
- Cable Modem Forecasts
- Radio-Based High-Speed Line Forecasts
- Fixed Wireless
- Satellite-Based Service
- Post 9-11 Forecasts for Radio Based High-Speed Services
- Total High-Speed Residential Line Forecast
- "Up Network" Traffic Implications of High-Speed Accesses
- Other Internet Traffic Sources
- VoIP – Voice over IP
- B2B – Business-to-Business Traffic
- Offshore IP Growth
- Summary of Other Internet Traffic Sources
- Internet Traffic Forecasts
- Forecast for High-Speed Accesses
- Transfer Rate
- Busy Hour Traffic
- Peaking
- Forecast for Internet Total Traffic
- Internet Traffic Revisions for Post 9-11
IMPACT OF OVER-SUPPLY
- The Good News
- The Next Boom – Lightwave down
- The Impact of the Post 9-11 Changes
- The Next Boom – Post 9-11
REVISED MARKET FORECASTS
- Nomenclature Reminder
- Long-Haul Rings
- Previous Forecast – DWDM
- Revised Forecast – DWDM – Lightwave Down
- New Forecast – DWDM
- Metro Networks
- Previous, Revised and New Forecast – M-DWDM
- Metro Access Networks
- Previous Forecast – Metro Access Networks
- Revised and New Forecast – Metro Access Networks
- Wavelength Routers & Optical Switches
- Previous Forecast – OXCs
- Revised Forecast – OXCs – Lightwave Down
- New Forecast – OXCs
- Terabit Routers & Gigabit Switchers
- Previous Forecast – Terabit Routers
- Revised Forecast – Terabit Routers
- New Forecast – Terabit Routers
- Aggregation Devices
- Previous Forecast – Aggregation Devices
- Revised Forecast – Aggregators
- New Forecast - Aggregators
- Enterprise Access Systems
- Previous Forecast – Enterprise Access Systems
- Revised Forecast – Enterprise Access Systems
- New Forecast – Enterprise Access Systems
- Residential Access Systems
- Previous Forecast – Residential Access Systems
- Revised Forecast – Residential Access Systems
- New Forecast – Residential Access Systems
- Video Access Equipment
- Previous and Current Forecast – Video Access Equipment
- New Forecast – Video Access Equipment
FORECASTS – SUMMARY
- Lightwave Down Forecast Summary
- New Forecast Summary – Post 9-11
APPENDIX I – THE LIGHTWAVE NETWORK
- Lightwave Network - Operational Description
- Transport Network
- Interconnect Network
- Access Network
- Lightwave Network - Major Unit Description
- Long-Haul Rings
- Metro Networks
- Metro Access Networks
- Wavelength Routers & Optical Switches
- Terabit Routers & Gigabit Switchers
- Aggregation Devices
- Enterprise Access Systems
- Residential Access Systems
- Video Access Equipment
APPENDIX II – MATRIX OF PROVIDERS
APPENDIX III – LISTING OF ACRONYMS
Table of Figures
Figure 1, Overall Projection for the Telecom Market
Figure 2, SBC xDSL Gain in 2000
Figure 3, xDSL In-Service End of 2000, Selected Companies
Figure 4, 2001 xDSL Results
Figure 5, Cable Modem Growth
Figure 6, xDSL Forecast – US – from Lightwave Down
Figure 7, xDSL Forecast – New
Figure 8, Comparison of xDSL Forecasts
Figure 9, Cable Modem Forecast – from Lightwave Down and Post 9-11
Figure 10, Fixed Wireless Forecast – US Subscribers
Figure 11, Satellite High-Speed Access - US Subscribers
Figure 12, Comparison of xDSL and Cable Modem Forecasts
Figure 13, Total High-Speed Access Lines – By Type – Lightwave Down
Figure 14, Comparison of Forecasts by Type - Post 9-11
Figure 15, High-Speed Accesses by Type - Post 9-11
Figure 16, Total High-Speed Access Lines
Figure 17, High-Speed Accesses vs. Household Growth
Figure 18, "Up-Network" Impact of Residential Demand
Figure 19, Business VoIP Growth
Figure 20, B2B Value Projections
Figure 21, Transatlantic Traffic
Figure 22, High Speed Access Lines - Total - Post 9-11
Figure 23, Transfer Rate Forecast – Lightwave Down
Figure 24, Internet Traffic Projection – Lightwave Down
Figure 25, Transfer Rate Forecast - Post 9-11
Figure 26, Internet Traffic Projection - Post 9-11
Figure 27, Comparison of Lightwave Down and Post 9-11 Internet Traffic Forecasts
Figure 28, D and F Chart for ADSL – Lightwave Down
Figure 29, ADSL D & F, Over-Supply – Lightwave Down
Figure 30, ADSL D & F, The Next Boom – from Lightwave Down
Figure 31, Scenario for the Next Boom – Lightwave Down
Figure 32, xDSL D & F Chart - Post 9-11
Figure 33, Market Scenario for the Next Boom - Post 9-11
Figure 34, Scenario Chart - Metro Only - Post 9-11
Figure 35, Previous DWDM Forecast
Figure 36, Revised DWDM Forecast
Figure 37, New DWDM Forecast
Figure 38, M-DWDM Forecast
Figure 39, Previous Forecast - Metro Access Networks
Figure 40, Revised and New Forecast - Metro Access Networks
Figure 41, Previous Forecast for OXCs
Figure 42, Revised Forecast for OXCs
Figure 43, New Forecast -OXCs
Figure 44, Previous Forecast for Terabit Routers
Figure 45, Revised Terabit Router Forecast
Figure 46, New Terabit Router Forecast - Post 9-11
Figure 47, Previous Forecast - Aggregators
Figure 48, Revised Forecast – Aggregators
Figure 49, New Forecast Aggregators
Figure 50, Previous Forecast - Enterprise Access
Figure 51, Revised Forecast - Enterprise Access Systems
Figure 52, New Forecast - Enterprise Access
Figure 53, Previous Forecast - Residential Access Systems
Figure 54, Revised Forecast - Residential Access Systems
Figure 55, New Forecast - Residential Access Systems
Figure 56, Previous and Revised Forecast - Video Access Equipment
Figure 57, New Forecast - Video Access Equipment
Figure 58, Revised Forecasts Summary – Lightwave Down
Figure 59, Comparison of Previous Forecast to Revised Forecast
Figure 60, New Forecasts Summary
Figure 61, Comparison of Three Forecasts
|
|
|
